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News - 15 February 2013

UK To Avoid Triple-Dip Recession, Says CBI

The Confederation of British Industry has said it believes the UK is in the clear when it comes to a triple-dip recession; this is despite growth forecast for this year.

However, it expects the UK economy will grow 1% in 2013, less than its previous estimate of 1.4%. But a rise in job vacancies and an improvement in business sentiment since its last forecast suggested the economy would avoid another recession and grow 0.3% in the first quarter of this year.

Hopes that Britain will avoid another recession have also been boosted by recent surveys which showed the services sector returned to growth and manufacturing output rose at its fastest pace since September 2011, in January.

The CBI is forecasting that inflation will edge higher until mid-2013, but will fall back in the second half of the year, and will be close to the Bank of England's 2% target throughout 2014.

On another positive note, it said UK exports will be stronger this year, with the global economy likely to grow faster as growth in China picks up and the US economy continues its "relatively solid, if unspectacular recovery".

But conditions will still be difficult for households in 2013, given weak growth in household spending power and unemployment at around 7.8%.

It believes unemployment levels are unlikely to change significantly over the forecast period, at 2.5 and 2.42 million in 2013 and 2014 respectively.

Lavinia Newman, founder of ABDS comments:
"Recent business surveys also give grounds for cautious optimism about our forward prospects."

If you need any help and advice when starting up a new business contact Lavinia Newman, Stuart Coleman or Tonmoy Kumar to discuss how ABDS can help

ABDS Chartered Certified Accountants of Southampton.
Tel: 023 8083 6900  E-mail:

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